Category: personal-development
-
Tina Fey’s Rules of Improvisation (and Parenting?)
Tina Fey’s Bossypants was one of the top 5 books I read this year (that I listened to, actually, but I don’t make the distinction). It’s a great mix of sharp humour, personal anecdotes, and insightful commentary on life and the entertainment industry. One part I think of frequently is Fey’s ‘rules of improvisation’. They’re…
-
An Index of Cognitive Biases (Understanding (and Overcoming) Mental Shortcuts)
I’ve shared lists of cognitive biases before, and books and blog posts on the topic are everywhere. To me, this stuff is like catnip. While doing further research into cognitive-debiasing training (inspired by Philip Tetlock’s research on forecasting), I stumbled across an extensive index of over 100 cognitive biases from The Decision Lab. The biases…
-
Four Steps to Better Predictions
Following his work on geopolitical forecasting, Philip Tetlock co-founded The Good Judgement Project, along with decision scientist Barbara Mellers and UPenn colleague Don Moore. Their further research identified four key steps to improving forecast accuracy, shared on the (now archived) ‘Science’ section of the project’s site. These steps: And don’t forget the ten commandments of…
-
Hedgehogs, Foxes, and Prediction
In reviewing Philip Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgment upon its release in 2005, The New Yorker of course discussed the main finding that expert judgements are not much better than those of lay forecasters. Another key focus of the review was Isaiah Berlin’s The Hedgehog and the Fox, a metaphor drawn from Archilochus sometime in the…
-
The Two Fundamental Truths of Prediction
There are two fundamental truths of prediction: (i) there exists a “prediction horizon” where predictions beyond this point are inherently inaccurate; and (ii) experts are generally just bad at predicting. On that first point: our ability to predict is limited by the nature of complex systems. Weather forecasts, for example, are quite accurate a day…
-
Tsundoku and Eco’s Antilibrary
Today I learnt of tsundoku: 19th-century Japanese slang for “the phenomenon of acquiring reading materials but letting them pile up in one’s home without reading them”. Yep, that’s me—with physical books, sure, but especially with ebooks. I love books as much as the next person, but I’m no bibliomaniac. Instead, I’m reminded of the more…
-
FAST not SMART for Goals
The conventional SMART approach for setting goals undermines higher-level (team and/or organisational) objectives by promoting an individualistic and isolated approach to work. The best approach for creating effective goals, according to researchers at MIT Sloan, is to go FAST: Frequently discussed; Ambitious; Specific; and Transparent. According to their meta-analysis and additional field research across companies…
-
Prioritising the Search for Good Books
A favourite hobby of mine is research. Structured or unstructured, informal or scholarly. Deep diving on a topic, old or new, is my jam. For that reason, I spend a lot of time reading about the thing, rather than actually doing the thing. The meta-activities. There are clear negatives to this approach (limited impulsivity, slower…
-
Create a Learning Guide for Any Topic
Want to learn a new topic but unsure where to start (or even whether the topic is what you expect)? The Curricula is an AI-driven learning tool, that will develop a detailed learning guide for any topic you feed it. Developed by Mike Dyer, the Curricula will generate a list of pre-requisites/related learning topics, a…
-
‘Locked’ Value, and Paying for Everything Twice
How to account for the true cost and value of our possessions? In the same vein as Thoreau, who wrote in Walden: “the cost of a thing is the amount of what I will call life which is required to be exchanged for it, immediately or in the long run”, David Cain suggests that everything…