On wondering why there are a lot fewer prediction markets than the topic’s popularity might suggest, Robin Hanson of Overcoming Bias looks at neutral arbitrators and asks, Who Cheers the Referee?
Similarly who cheers the officials who keep elections fair, or the teachers who grade fairly? Inspiring stories are told of folks who win legal cases or music competitions, but what stories are told of fair neutral judges who make sure the right people win? After all, competition stories are not nearly as inspiring with arbitrary or corrupt judges. Oh judges are sometimes celebrated, but for supporting the “good” side, not for making a fair neutral evaluation.