Tag: cognitive-bias
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Cake Mixes, the IKEA Effect, and the Psychology of Effort
In the index of cognitive biases (previously), I came across the IKEA effect: why do we place disproportionately high value on things we helped to create? Similar to the endowment effect (our tendency to overvalue our own belongings), the IKEA effect explains why we’re willing to pay a significant premium (over 60%!) for products that…
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An Index of Cognitive Biases (Understanding (and Overcoming) Mental Shortcuts)
I’ve shared lists of cognitive biases before, and books and blog posts on the topic are everywhere. To me, this stuff is like catnip. While doing further research into cognitive-debiasing training (inspired by Philip Tetlock’s research on forecasting), I stumbled across an extensive index of over 100 cognitive biases from The Decision Lab. The biases…
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Four Steps to Better Predictions
Following his work on geopolitical forecasting, Philip Tetlock co-founded The Good Judgement Project, along with decision scientist Barbara Mellers and UPenn colleague Don Moore. Their further research identified four key steps to improving forecast accuracy, shared on the (now archived) ‘Science’ section of the project’s site. These steps: And don’t forget the ten commandments of…
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An Expert’s an Expert Only When We Agree
In the face of information that is contradictory to our beliefs, not only do we reinforce our position, but we also question the credibility of the source itself. In a study showing that we only agree that there is scientific consensus if that consensus agrees with our viewpoint, researchers from the Cultural Cognition Project also…
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Corrections and When They Work
A correction only serves its purpose (to correct our falsely-held beliefs) if we are predisposed to believe the correction itself. If we disagree with the correction, however, it instead acts to actually reinforce our incorrect beliefs (the “backfire effect”). That’s the conclusion drawn from research conducted by Brendan Nyhan, looking at how we avoid cognitive…
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Hand Washing Leads to Rational Evaluations
Postdecisional dissonance–an extremely close relative of both post-purchase rationalisation and the choice-supportive bias–is the phenomenon whereby once we have made a decision we perceive our chosen option as the most attractive choice and the discarded alternatives as less attractive, regardless of the evidence. Some intriguing recent research suggests that the physical act of cleaning one’s hands helps…
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Derren Brown’s Bertram Effect Experiment Text
I love the Bertram effect. It’s likely the cognitive bias / psychological experiment that I think of the most. While the text from the original experiment is good, it’s from 1948. In the brilliant Tricks of the Mind and his 2000s TV show of the same name, Derren Brown updated the experiment, using his own text (reproduced…
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Self-Awareness and the Importance of Feedback
It comes as no surprise to hear that we are poor at perceiving how others view us and are poor at recognising the true personality traits of those we observe, but it’s the extent to which this is true and methods we can use to overcome these ‘personality blind spots’ that I find interesting. When…
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Bertram Forer Experiments: Your Personalised Generic Profile
Here is the ‘personalised’ personality profile as used in a 1948 experiment by Bertram Forer: You have a great need for other people to like and admire you. You have a tendency to be critical of yourself. You have a great deal of unused capacity which you have not turned to your advantage. While you have…
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Applying Knowledge and Not Understanding Ourselves
One of my favourite reads–the British Psychological Society’s (BPS) Research Digest–has recently published its 150th issue. To observe this occasion, Digest has asked what twenty-three psychologists still don’t understand about themselves. I’ve mentioned a number of the featured psychologists here before, including Robert Cialdini, Alison Gopnik and Richard Wiseman. As Vaughan notes, many of those contributing to…