Tag: philip-tetlock

  • Four Steps to Better Predictions

    Following his work on geopolitical forecasting, Philip Tetlock co-founded The Good Judgement Project, along with decision scientist Barbara Mellers and UPenn colleague Don Moore. Their further research identified four key steps to improving forecast accuracy, shared on the (now archived) ‘Science’ section of the project’s site. These steps: And don’t forget the ten commandments of…

  • Hedgehogs, Foxes, and Prediction

    In reviewing Philip Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgment upon its release in 2005, The New Yorker of course discussed the main finding that expert judgements are not much better than those of lay forecasters. Another key focus of the review was Isaiah Berlin’s The Hedgehog and the Fox, a metaphor drawn from Archilochus sometime in the…

  • The Two Fundamental Truths of Prediction

    There are two fundamental truths of prediction: (i) there exists a “prediction horizon” where predictions beyond this point are inherently inaccurate; and (ii) experts are generally just bad at predicting. On that first point: our ability to predict is limited by the nature of complex systems. Weather forecasts, for example, are quite accurate a day…